Group F, I believe, has the easiest group winner to predict in this World Cup. Barring one of the most stunning developments in WC history, Italy should advance rather easily. The “Azzuro Savoia” (Savoy Blue) return virtually the same team that grittily won the last WC, although enigmatic forward Luca Toni and rugged defender Marco Matterazzi were left off the squad. Having underperformed in the 2009 Confederations Cup (winning once and losing twice to warrant their elimination), Italy brought back Marcello Lippi, who had resigned shortly after his triumphant campaign in 2006.
As an American who dabbles in soccer, team Italy evoke strong thoughts, as the USA’s greatest feat in 2006 was the rough and controversial 1-1 draw versus Italy in which one goal for each squad was disallowed due to offside, Italy scored an own goal, and the USA finished the game with only nine men on the field due to red cards. When I look at this squad, despite Toni’s and Matterazzi’s absence, the names Buffon, Pirlo, De Rossi, and Gattuso jump off the page. Make no mistake, despite their age, Italy boast world class talent, and they have Buffon to clean up any mistakes they should make.
The always tense battle for second place in the group is expected to come down to Paraguay and Slovakia. Both squads have a limited WC resume, with Paraguay’s more substantial due largely to political reasons. Paraguay have never advanced past the Round of 16, but they stand a good chance to get that far this time as second place in Group F should be decided by their head-to-head match with an inexperienced Slovakian side.
The Slovakian national soccer team is a veritable baby on the international football scene. Formed in 1993 after Czechoslovakia split, the 2010 WC is the first one for which Slovakia has qualified. They will rely heavily on highly touted midfielder Marik Hamsik, who, according to FIFA’s WC Group F preview, has been Napoli’s best player. They also hope to ride the momentum of a surprising qualifying campaign that saw Slovakia finish ahead of Slovenia (a WC dark horse), the Czechs, Northern Ireland, and Poland.
Most groups have one squad no one expects much from, and for Group F that team is New Zealand. No one has high hopes for the “All Whites,” who have a dismal 0-3 record and -10 goal differential in their only WC experience (1982). Currently ranked 78th by FIFA, New Zealand would do well to record a scoreless draw and will be hard-pressed to come home with anything better than a hideous goal differential. I should hold my tongue here, however, for strange things happen on the pitch (see the USA’s triumph over Spain and near-miss against Brazil in last year’s Confederations Cup).
So for any real drama this group can offer, mark June 20 on your calendars. That is when Slovakia play Paraguay, and in all likelihood that is when second place in Group F will be decided. I would love to see Slovakia and New Zealand advance, just to put unexpected teams into the next round, but I know Italy will advance. And can one really complain about having more opportunities to watch Buffon and Pirlo put on a show?
And just to revel in what little success us Yanks had four years back, here are the highlights of that gritty draw we had against Italy.
